Market Efficiency of the Malaysian Stock Exchange: Further Evidence

Authors

  • Chin Wen Cheong Faculty of Information Technology Multimedia University, Malaysia
  • Abu Hassan Shaari Mohd Nor Faculty of Economic and Business National University Malaysia, Malaysia
  • Zaidi Isa Faculty of Science and Technology National University Malaysia, Malaysia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.32890/ijms2008.15.2.3

Keywords:

Random walk hypothesis, market efficiency, long-range dependence

Abstract

This paper investigates the weak-form of market efficiency using the Malaysian Stock Exchange over a period of January 1991 to December 2006. The long-spanning data set enabled us to study piecewise before and after the economic crisis encountered by the Malaysian stock market. Using the daily price index, the weak-form efficiency is examined according to the price, return, and volatility. The unit root test was performed for both the price level and price changes to verify the presence of random walk processes. In order to account the characteristics of emerging markets, the daily returns are adjusted for infrequent trading and non-linearity behaviour. The nonlinearities are further examined by the exponential GARCH-M to ensure that the observed return predictibility is not resulted by time-variation in the market risk premium. Besides the clustering volatility, the predictability of the long-range dependence volatility was also checked. The empirical results evidenced the mixtures of efficient and inefficient markets in the Malaysian stock exchange for the studied sub-periods.

 

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Andrews, D.W.K. (1993). Tests for parameter instability and structural change with unknown change point. Econometrica, 61, 821-856.

Andersen, T.G., & Bollerslev, T. (1997). Heterogeneous information arrivals and return volatility dynamics: Uncovering the long run in high frequency data, Journal of Finance, 52, 975-1005.

Annuar, M.N., Ariff M., & Shamsher M. (1994). Is Kuala Lumpur’s market emerging share market efficient? Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 4, 89-100.

Antoniou, A., Ergul N., & Holmes P. (1997). Market efficiency, thin trading and non-linear behaviour: evidence from an emerging market, European Financial Management, 3, 175-190.

Bachelier, L., & Cootner, P. (Eds.). (1900). Theory of speculation: The random character of stock market prices. MA: Massachusetts Institute of Technology Press. IJMS 15 (2), 41-67 (2008) 65

Barkoulas, N.T., & Baum C.F. (1996). Long term dependence in stock returns, Economic Letter, 53, 253-259.

Barnes, P. (1986). Thin trading and stock market efficiency: The case of the Kuala Lumpur stock exchange. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, 3, 609-617.

Beran, J. (1994). Statistics for long-memory processes. Chapman &Hall.

Campbell, J.Y., Lo, A.W., & MacKinlay, A.C. (1997). The econometrics of financial markets. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Cajueiro, D.O., & Tabak, B.M. (2004). The Hurst’s exponent over time: Testing the assertion that emerging markets are becoming more efficient. Physica A, 336, 521.

Crato, N., & deLima, PJ.F. (1994). Long-memory and non-linearity: Time series analysis of stock market returns and volatilities. Managerial Finance, 20, 49-67.

Dacorogna, M., Ulrich, M., Richard, O., & Oliveier, P. (2001). Defining efficiency in heterogeneous markets. Quantitative Finance, 1, 198-201.

DeBondt, W.R.M., & Thaler, R.H.(1985) Does the stock market overreact? Journal of Finance, 40, 793-805.

Ding, Z., Granger C.W,J., & Engle, R.F. (1993). Along memory property of stock market returns and a new model. Journal of Empirical Finance, 1, 83-106.

Fama, E.F. (1970). Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical work. Journal of Finance, 25, 383-417.

French, K.R., Schwert, G.W., & Stambaugh, R.F. (1987). Expected stock returns and volatility. Journal of Financial Economics, 19, 3-29.

Hansen, B.E. (1995). Approximate asymptotic p-values for structural change test. Boston College Working Papers in Economics 297, Boston College.

Hurst, H.E. (1951). Long term storage capacity of reservoirs. Transaction of the American Society of Civil Engineers, 116, 770-799.

Karemera, D., Ojah, K., & Cole, J.A. (1999). Random walks and market efficiency tests: Evidence from emerging equity markets. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 13171-13188.

Mandelbrot, B. (1997). Fractal and scaling in finance: Discontinuity, concentration, risk. New York Springer.

Merton, R. (1980). On estimating the expected return on the market. Journal of Financial Economics, 8, 323-361.

Merton, R. (1990). Continuous time finance. Cambridge, MA: Blackwell Publishers, Cambridge, MA.

Miller, M.H., Muthuswamy, J., & Whaley, R-E. (1994). Mean reversion of Standard and Poor 500 index basis changes: Arbitrage-induced or statistical illusion? Journal of Finance, 49, 479-513. 66 IJMS 15 (2), 41-67 (2008)

Mullier, U., Dacorogna,M., Dav,R.,PictetO., Olsen, R., & Ward,J.(1993). Fractals and intrinsic time - A challenge to econometricians. XXXIXth International AEA Conference on Real Time Econometrics, 14-15.

Nassir, A. M., & Mohammad, S. (1993), The efficiency of the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange: A collection of empirical Findings. Penerbit UPM, Serdang.

Nelson, D.B. (1991). Conditional heteroskedasticity in asset returns: A new approach. Econometrica, 59, 347-370.

Ng, S., & Perron, P., (1995). Unit root tests in ARMA models with data-dependent methods for the selection of the truncation lag. Journal of American Statistical Association, 90, 268-281.

Othman, Y. (1989). The price behaviour of Malaysian Stock. Malaysian Management Review, 24, 23-34.

Othman, Y. (1990). Thin capital markets: A study of market efficiency of Malaysian stock. Malaysian Management Review, 25, 49-62.

Perron, P. (1989). The great crush, the oil price shock and the unit root hypothesis. Econometrica, 55, 277-302.

Peters, E. E. (1994). Fractal market analysis, A Wiley finance edition. New York: John Wiley & Sons.

Schwert, G,.W. (1989). Tests of unit roots: A monte carlo investigation. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 7, 147-159.

Shiller, R. J. (2000). Irrational exuberance. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. Taylor, $.(1986). Modelling financial time series. Chichester: John Wiley.

Vogelsang, T.J., & Perron, P. (1998). Additional tests for a unit root allowing for a break in the trend function at an unknown time. International Economic Review, 39, 1073-1100.

White, H., (1980). A heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix and a direct test for heteroskedasticity, Economtics, 48, 817-838. IJMS 15 (2), 41-67 (2008) 67

Downloads

Published

18-12-2008

Research impact

Harvested 2026-09-08
0 citations recorded so far

Counts differ between services because each indexes a different body of literature. None of them is the whole picture.

Identifiers DOI 10.32890/ijms2008.15.2.3 OpenAlex W7020833496

Most read articles by the same author(s)