Kemeruapan Kadar Syarat Perdagangan dan Pertumbuhan: Peranan Perbelanjaan Fiskal

Authors

  • Azmafazilah Jauhari Faculti Ekonomi dan Perniagaan Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Malaysia
  • Fathin Faizah Said Faculti Ekonomi dan Perniagaan Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Malaysia
  • Md. Zyadi Md. Tahir Faculti Ekonomi dan Perniagaan Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Malaysia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.32890/ijms2005.12.2.8

Keywords:

Kemeruapan, kadar syarat perdagangan, pertumbuhan ekonomi, perbelanjaan kerajaan

Abstract

Kajian ini menganalisis hubungan antara liberalisasi perdagangan antarabangsa dengan saiz perbelanjaan kerajaan dan kesannya terhadap kestabilan dan pertumbuhan pendapatan. Kajian ini menguji kesan kemeruapan kadar syarat perdagangan (TOT) terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi bagi sebuah ekonomi terbuka dan bagaimana perbelanjaan kerajaan berperanan mengurangkan kesan kemeruapan tersebut. Kajian tertumpu kepada kes negara ASEAN-6 iaitu Filipina, Malaysia, Myanmar, Singapura, Thailand dan Indonesia dalam tempoh 32 tahun (1970 hingga 2002). Analisis dijalankan menggunakan kaedah ARCH dan GARCH(1,1) terhadap model pertumbuhan stokastik endogen. Keputusan kajian mendapati liberalisasi perdagangan di semua negara yang dikaji adalah tidak tegar dan meningkatkan kesan pendedahan risiko TOT terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi negara tersebut.  Dasar perbelanjaan fiskal negara dikaji juga didapati gagal menstabilkan kemeruapan tingkat pendapatan yang disebabkan oleh risiko luaran, seperti pengaruh keterbukaan dan TOT. Berdasarkan penemuan kajian yang diperolehi beberapa implikasi dasar turut dikemukakan.

 

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Published

01-12-2005

Issue

Vol. 12 No. 2 (2005): International Journal of Management Studies (IJMS) Vol. 12, No. 2 December 2005

Section

Articles

Research impact

Harvested 2026-09-07
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Identifiers DOI 10.32890/ijms2005.12.2.8 OpenAlex W1931252084

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