Hubungan Tabungan-Pelaburan dan Analisis Mobiliti Modal

Authors

  • Azmafazilah Jauhari Fakulti Ekonomi dan Perniagaan Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Malaysia
  • Nafisah Mohammed Fakulti Ekonomi dan Perniagaan Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Malaysia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.32890/ijms2005.12.1.10

Keywords:

Hubungan Tabungan-Pelaburan, Model OLG dan Vector Error Correction Mechanism

Abstract

Artikel ini mengkaji hubungan antara tabungan dengan pelaburan bagi beberapa buah negara Asia. Hubungan tersebut seterusnya menjadi pengukur darjah mobiliti modal antarabangsa bagi negara-negara tersebut. Analisis mobiliti modal adalah penting kerana ianya memberi implikasi penting terhadap program pembangunan ekonomi kebanyakan negara Asia, terutamanya Negara Sedang Membangun melalui pembolehubah makroekonomi, seperti pelaburan dan juga tabungan. Kajian ini menggunakanmodel makroekonomi Overlapping Generation (OLG) sebagai kerangka teori, iaitu mengandaikan mobiliti modal adalah sempurna. Analisis kajian melibatkan pengujian hubungan jangka pendek dan jangka panjang di antara tabungan dan pelaburan tempatan. Bagi tujuan tersebut, kajian ini mengaplikasikan model vektor pembetulan ralat atau Vector Error Correction Mechanism (VECM) dan fungsi impulse responses. Kajian ini merangkumi data tahunan bagi 13 buah negara Asia di antara tahun 1960 sehingga 2000. Keputusan berikut telah diperoleh: Pertama, wujud kointegrasi antara kadartabungan dan pelaburan hanya bagi negara China, Filipina, Korea, Malaysia,Pakistan dan Singapura. Kedua, kadar pertumbuhan pelaburan menyebabkanpertumbuhan dalam pelaburan bagi negara Filipina dan Singapura.Sebaliknya, bagi negara China dan Indonesia pertumbuhan dalam tabungancenderung untuk menyebabkan peningkatan dalam pelaburan. Ketiga, terdapat aliran penyebab dalam kedua-dua arah bagi negara Jepun, Korea dan Myanmar. Di akhir kajian ini, satu rumusan serta implikasi dasar telah dibincangkan.

 

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Als, G. (1988). The nightmare of economic accounts in a small country with a large international banking sector. Review of Income and Wealth, 34, 101-160,

Argimon, I, & Jose R. (1994). Saving, investment and international capital mobility in EC countries, European Economic Review, 38, 59-67.

Asian Development Bank. (1999). Asian development outlook. Hong Kong: Oxford University Press.

Baxter, M. & Crucini, M. J. (1993). Explaining saving-investment correlation. The American Economic Review, 83, 416-436.

Bayoumi, T. (1990), Saving-investment correlation: Immobile capital, government policy or endogenous behaviour. IMF Staff Papers, 37, 360-387.

Blanchard, O. J., & Fischer, S, (1989). Cactures on Macroeconomics Cambridge: Mit Press.

Coakley, Jeffry, Hasan, Farida & Smith, R. (1999). Saving, investment and capital mobility in LDCs, Review of International Economics, 7, 632-640,

Coakley, Jeffry, Hasan, Farida & Smith, Ron (1996), Current account solvency and the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle. Economic Journal, 106, 620-627.

Coiteux, M. & Olivier, S. (2000). The saving retention coefficient in the longrun and in the short run: evidence from panel data. Journal of Money and Finance, 19, 535-548.

Dickey, D.A. & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distributions of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427-431.

Dooley, M. P, Jeffrey, A. F. & Donald, J. M. (1987). International capital mobility - what do saving-investment correlation tell us? IMF Staff Papers, 34, 503-530.

Feldstein, M. 5. (1983). Domestic saving and international capital movements in the long runand the shortrun. European Economic Review, 21, 129-151.

Feldstein, M. 5. & Horioka, C. Y. (1980). Domestic saving and international capital flows. Economic Journal, 90, 314-329.

Frankel, J. A., (1986). International capital mobility and crowding-out in the U.S. economy: Imperfect integration of financial markets or of goods markets?, in R. W. Hafer (Ed.), How open ig the U.S. economy? Lexington: Lexington Books.

Genberg, H. & Swoboda, A. K. (1992). Saving, investment and current account. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 94, 347-366,

Gujarati, D. N. (1995), Basie econometrics. Singapore: McGraw-Hill, Inc. IIMS 12 (1), 205-233 (2005) 231

Gundlach, E. & Sinn, S. (1992). Unit root tests of the current account balance: implication for international capital mobility. Applied Economics, 24, 617-625.

Husted, 5. (1992). The emerging U.S. current account deficit in the 1980s: - A cointegration analysis. The Review of Economics and Statistics LXXIV 1, 159-165. International Monetary Fund (pelbagai tahun). International financial " statistics yearbook. Washington DC: International Monetary Fund. —_ Jansen, J. W. (2000). International capital mobility: Evidence from panel data, Journal of International money and Finance, 19, 505-511.

Jansen, J. W. (1997). Can the intertemporal budget constraint explain "oO the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle? Economics Letters, 56, 77-83.

Jansen, J. W. (1996). Estimating saving-investment correlations: QA Evidence for OECD countries based on error correction model. Journal of International Money and Finance, 15, 749-781. a Jansen, J W. & Schulze, Gunther G. (1996). Theory-based measurement of the saving-investment correlation with an application to Norway. Economic Inquiry, 34, 116-132.

Jansen, J. W. (1994). In Search of the Saving-investment correlation: Are cross -seclion regression useful? In Jansen W,Jos (1997), 5 Economic Letters, 56, 77-83.

Jansen, J. W. (1991). Estimating saving-investment correlation: Evidence for OECD countries based on error correction mechanisme. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institution a and Money, 1,749-781.

Kim, S. H. (2000). The saving-investment correlation puzzle is still a puzzle. Journal of International Money and Finance, 20, 1017-1034.

Krol, R, (1996). International capital mobility: Evidence from panel data. Journal of International Money and Finance, 15, 467-474.

Leachman, L. (1991). Saving, investment and capital mobility among OECD countries. Open Economics Review, 2, 137-163. © MT |Mackinnon, R. (1991). Critical values for cointegration tests, in Engle, a R.F. & Garanger, C. W. J. (Eds), Long-run economic relationships a readings in cointegration. New York: Oxford University Press.

Miller, S.M, (1988), Are saving and investment cointegrated. Economics Letters, 27, 31-34.

Moreno, R. (1997). Saving-investment dynamics and capital mobility in the US and Japan. Journal of International Money and Finance, 16, 837-863.

Obstfeld, M. (1993). Capital mobility in the world economy: Theory and measurement. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy. 24, 55-104.

Oscar, B, R, (1998). The saving-investment correlation revisited: The case of Spain 1964-1994, Applied Econontics Letters, 5, 769-72 232 WMS 12 (1). 205-233 (2005) www.ijms.edu.my UUM

Osterwald-L. M. (1992). A note with quantities of the asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood cointegration rank test stalistics. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 54, 461-472.

Romer, D (2001). Advanced Macroeeonomies. Boston: MceGrow Hill.

Romer, D. (2001). Advanced Macroeconomics. Boston:; McGraw Hill.

Sheffrin, S. M. & Wing, W. T. (1990). Present value tests of an intertemporal model of current account. Journal of International Economics, 29, 237-253

Sinha, D. (2002). Saving-investment relationships for Japan and other Asian countries. Japan and The World Economy, 4, 1-23.

Sinn, S. (1992). Saving-investment correlations and capital mobility: On the evidence from annual data. Economic Journal, 102, 1162-1170.

Sen, P, (1994). Saving, investment and rthe ctirrentaccount in Fredevick Van Der Ploeg (Ed), The handbooks of international macroeconomics. Oxford: Blackwell.

Summers, L, (1988), Tax policy and international competitiveness. in: Frenkel, J. (Ed.), Juternational aspects of fiscal policies. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

Tan Hui Boon (2000). Saving, investment and capital flows: An empirical study on the Asean economies, (Working Paper 3). Universiti Putra Malaysia. ‘Tesar, L. L. (1991). Saving, investment and international capital flows. Journal of International Economies, 31, 55-78.

Van, R., Kristen N, & Copeland, J. B. (2000). Saving and investment rates in Latin America: An error correction analysis. Journal of Economics and Finance, 24, 195-205, TMS 12 (1), 205-233 (2005) 233

Downloads

Published

29-06-2005

Issue

Vol. 12 No. 1 (2005): International Journal of Management Studies (IJMS) Vol. 12, No. 1 June 2005

Section

Articles

Research impact

Harvested 2026-09-07
0 citations recorded so far

Counts differ between services because each indexes a different body of literature. None of them is the whole picture.

Identifiers DOI 10.32890/ijms2005.12.1.10 OpenAlex W354582208

Most read articles by the same author(s)