Integrating Analytical Hierarchical Process and Quadrant Matrix Analysis in a Decision Analytics Framework for Flood Management Planning

Abstrak

Flood management planning (FMP) requires decision analytics approaches that can prioritize multiple criteria while accounting for uncertainty in expert judgment and data availability. This study presents a decision analytics framework that integrates the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Quadrant Matrix Analysis (QMA) to identify key flood and trade-off criteria, and to develop a structural plan to support FMP decision making. Using the PESTEL framework, a refined set of 40 criteria was assessed through structured elicitation involving 10 experts from diverse disciplines. AHP was applied to find the relative importance of each criterion, while QMA mapped the criteria by both importance and certainty. The AHP results indicate that the Political, Legal, and Economic domains were the main driving criteria for FMP. At the criterion level, P1: Fair distribution of resources was ranked first (0.1917), followed by L1: Land ownership for flood protection (0.0739) and L4: International constitutional standards and guidelines (0.0543). QMA, in contrast, identified 25 “Must‑Have” criteria, primarily within the Environmental, Social, and Technological domains. A comparison of AHP and QMA outputs reveals that criterion certainty significantly affects practical applicability, even for criteria that are highly ranked in importance. By jointly considering importance and certainty, EC7: Economic loss, EC5: Financial budget, and L3: Flood Disaster Institutional emerged as "Very Highly Ranked" and "Must-Have". The framework also incorporates a structured criterion‑reflection stage, informed by the Weather Model, to refine expert evaluations. Overall, the proposed decision analytics framework enhances clarity and consistency in the selection of criteria and offers practical guidance for FMP in Malaysia and other planning contexts.