Exports, Domestic Demand, and Real GDP Per Capita: Empirical Evidence from Malaysia

Authors

  • Wong Hock Tsen School of Business and Economics Universiti Malaysia Sabah, Malaysia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.32890/ijms2008.15.2.7

Keywords:

Exports, domestic demand, real GDP per capita, Malaysia, causality

Abstract

This study examined the role of exports and domestic demand on real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in Malaysia. There was weak evidence that real GDP per capita Granger causes domestic demand and exports and exports Granger cause real GDP per capita. Government consumption and investment are found to Granger cause real GDP per capita. However, the results of Geweke (1982) decomposition of causality showed that linear dependence between domestic demand and real GDP per capita and linear dependence between exports and real GDP per capita are dominated by contemporaneous causality between these variables. Generally, domestic demand and exports are important to real GDP per capita, and real GDP per capita, is important to domestic demand and exports in Malaysia.

 

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Ahmad, J., & Harnhirun, S. (1996). Cointegration and causality between exports and economic growth: Evidence from the ASEAN countries. Canadian Journal of Economics, 96, 5413-5416.

Aizenman, J. (2004). Endogenous financial and trade openness efficiency and political economy considerations. Economics Department, University of Hawaii, Manoa Saunders Hall, Working Paper No. 04-4.

Akaike, H. (1970). Statistical predictor identification. Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, 22, 203-217.

Akaike, H. (1973). Maximum likelihood identification of Gaussian autoregressive moving average models. Biometrika, 60, 255-265. Asia Development Bank (ADB) (2005). Asian Development Outlook 2005, Asia Development Bank. Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) (1999). The Central Bank and the Financial System in Malaysia. Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia: Bank Negara Malaysia.

Calderon, C., & Liu, L. (2003). The direction of causality between financial development and economic growth. Journal of Development Economics, 72, 321-334. IJMS 15 (2), 119-141 (2008) 139

Chong, A., & Calderon, C. (2000). Causalilty and feedback between institutional measures and economic growth. Economics and Politics, 12(1), 69-81.

Dickey, D.A., & Fuller, W.A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427-431.

Dodaro, S. (1993). Exports and growth: A reconsideration of causality. Journal of Developing Area, 27, 227-244.

Doraisami, A. (1996). Export growth and economic growth: A reexamination of some time series evidence of the Malaysian experience. Journal of Developing Areas, 30, 223-230.

Geweke, J. (1982). Measurement of linear dependence and feedback between multiple time series. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 77(378), 304-313.

Geweke, J. (1984). Measures of conditional linear dependence and feedback between time series. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 79(388), 907-915.

Ghatak, S., Milner, C., & Utkulu, U. (1997). Exports, export composition and growth: Cointegration and causality evidence for Malaysia. Applied Economics, 29, 213-223.

Giles, J.A., & Williams, C.L. (2000a). Export-led growth: A survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results, part 1. Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 9(4), 265-341.

Giles, J. A., & Williams, C.L. (2000b). Export-led growth: A survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results, part 2. Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 9 (4), 445-470.

Granger, C.W.J. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross spectral models. Econometrica, 37(3), 424-438.

Granger, C.W,J. (1988). Some recent development in a concept of causality. Journal of Econometrics, 39, 199-211.

Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Econontic Dynamics and Control, 12(2-3), 231-254.

Khalafalla, K-Y., & Webb, A. J. (2001). Export-led growth and structural change: Evidence from Malaysia. Applied Economics, 33(13), 1703-1713.

Lai, Y.W. (2004). The role of domestic demand in the economic growth of Malaysia: A cointegration analysis. International Economic Journal, 18(3), 337-352.

Leow, G. Y. (2004). A reexamination of the role of exports in Malaysia’s economic growth: After Asian financial crisis, 1970-2000. International Journal of Management Studies (Special Issue), 79-104. 140 IJMS 15 (2), 119-141 (2008)

Malaysia (2006). Ninth Malaysia Plan. Putrajaya, Malaysia: The Economic Planning Unit, Prime Minister’s Department.

Mookerjee, R. (2006). A meta-analysis of the export growth hypothesis. Economic Letters, 91, 395-401.

Palley, T.I. (2002). A new development paradigm: Domestic demand-led growth. Discussion Paper, Foreign Policy in Focus, Albuquerque, New Mexico.

Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R.J. (2000). Structural analysis of vector error correction models with exogenous I(1) variables. Journal of Econometrics, 97, 293-343.

Phillips, P.C.B., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75 (2), 335-346.

Siddigue, M.A.B., & Selvanathan, E.A. (1999). Exports performance and economic growth: Co-integration and causality analysis for Malaysia, 1966-96, Retrieved 12" August 2006 from http: // www.ecom.uwa.edu.au/data/page/37152/99.13.pdf.

The World Bank (1993). The East Asian Miracle: Economic Growth and Public Policy, A World Bank Policy Research Report. Place: Publisher.

Yousif, M.A.-Y. (1999). On the role of exports in the economic growth of Malaysia: A multivariate analysis. International Economic Journal, 13 (3), 67-75. IJMS 15 (2), 119-141 (2008) 141

Downloads

Published

18-12-2008

Issue

Vol. 15 No. 2 (2008): International Journal of Management Studies (IJMS) Vol. 15, No. 2 December 2008

Section

Articles

Research impact

Harvested 2026-09-24
0 citations recorded so far

Counts differ between services because each indexes a different body of literature. None of them is the whole picture.

Identifiers DOI 10.32890/ijms2008.15.2.7 OpenAlex W6981738753

Most read articles by the same author(s)