Perdagangan Luar Malaysia dalam Konteks AFTA, NAFTA Dan EU: Pendekatan Model Graviti

Authors

  • Rizaudin Sahlan Fakulti Ekonomi Universiti Utara Malaysia, Malaysia
  • Muhd Ridhuan Bos Abdullah Fakulti Ekonomi Universiti Utara Malaysia, Malaysia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.32890/ijms2007.14.1.8

Keywords:

Model graviti, ujian punca unit panel, kointegrasi, mekanisme pembetulan ralat

Abstract

Artikel ini bertujuan untuk menentukan faktor yang mempengaruhi perdagangan Malaysia dalam konteks AFTA, EU dan NAFTA. Untuk mengukur hubungan perdagangan, kajian dibuat berasaskan penganggaran model graviti yang telah diperkenalkan oleh Timbergen (1962). Antara pemboleh ubah yang diambil kira sebagai faktor penentu aliran perdagangan dalam model graviti ini adalah faktor Keluaran Dalam Negara Kasar (KDNK) bagi Malaysia dan rakan dagangan, faktor jarak antara negara, jumlah populasi dan faktor kumpulan ekonomi NAFTA, EU dan AFTA. Hasil kajian mendapati pemboleh ubah jumlah dagangan, KDNK dan populasi adalah pegun dalam bentuk pembezaan pertama melalui ujian punca unit versi panel LCC. Ujian kointegrasi ke atas pemboleh ubah panel menunjukkan model graviti yang digunakan adalah berkointegrasi, iaitu wujud hubungan jangka panjang antara pemboleh ubah. Penganggaran model graviti versi ECM panel pula menunjukkan faktor KDNK Malaysia dan jumlah populasi bagi Malaysia dan rakan dagangan, faktor jarak, peranan kumpulan ekonomi NAFTA dan EU adalah signifikan mempengaruhi jumlah dagangan dua-hala antara Malaysia dengan rakan dagangan dalam kajian.

 

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Published

01-06-2007

Issue

Vol. 14 No. 1 (2007): International Journal of Management Studies (IJMS) Vol. 14, No. 1 June 2007

Section

Articles

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Identifiers DOI 10.32890/ijms2007.14.1.8 OpenAlex W199557743