Retirement Prediction Modelling: A Systematic Literature Review
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.32890/ijms2025.32.2.4Keywords:
Retirement, predictive analytic, consumption pattern, systematic literature reviewAbstract
The topic of retirement has been the subject of much debate in previous literature. However, there has been limited exploration within the specific context of retirement funds modelling. Therefore, this paper aims to offer insights into the relevance of consumption in retirement modelling through a systematic literature review. The study utilized the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews (PRISMA) method for collecting journal articles, focusing on publications from January 2000 to January 2023. From a pool of 1,822 articles sourced from Scopus and WoS, only ten were selected for an in-depth review. This paper emphasizes the methodologies employed in the selected articles and the preditor of retirement planning. The analysis revealed that three articles incorporate consumption in their retirement modelling. However, only one article within the reviewed literature has implicitly suggest the possible effect of consumption as an indirect antecedent for retirement modelling. Considering the significance of consumption, especially its potential drastic changes post-retirement, this aspect proves essential in influencing the overall amount required for retirement planning.
Downloads
References
Alonso, J., Hoyo, C., & Tuesta, D. (2014). A model for the pension system in Mexico: Diagnosis and recommendations. Journal of Pension Economics & Finance, 14(1), 76-112. https://doi.org/10. 1017/S147474721400016X
Alphonce et al. (2024). Financial insecurity in ageing population. International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 14(10), 1657-1670. http://dx.doi.org/10.6007/IJARBSS/v14-i10/23272
Amani, J., & Fussy, D. S. (2022). Retirement planning mistakes undermining the post-retirement adjustment and well-being. Educational Gerontology, 49(2), 158–173. https://doi.org/10.1080/ 03601277.2022.2096306
Anawanakak, V. E., Ekerete, B. I. & Etuk, U. R. (2024) Factors affecting retirement planning of agricultural extension staff in Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria. International Journal of Social Sciences and Management Research, 10(11), 133-144.
Bank Negara Malaysia. (2022). Economic & Monetary Review 2021.
Barr, N. A. (2014). The role of the public and private sectors in ensuring adequate pensions: Theoretical considerations. In M.J. Clements, F. Eich, & S. Gupta (Eds.), Equitable and Sustainable Pensions (pp. 431). International Monetary Fund. chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/ https://www.bnm.gov.my/documents/20124/6458996/emr2021_en_book.pdf
Belloni, M., & Alessie, R. (2013). Retirement choices in Italy: What an option value model tells us. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 75(4), 499–527. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.14680084.2012.00701.x
Blake, D. (2004). The impact of wealth on consumption and retirement behaviour in the UK. Applied Financial Economics, 14(8), 555–576. https://doi.org/10.1080/0960310042000233863
Bonsang, E., & Klein, T. J. (2012). Retirement and subjective well-being. Journal of Economic
Behavior & Organization, 83(3), 311–329. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2012.06.002
Cervellati, M., & Sunde, U. (2005). Human capital formation, life expectancy, and the process of development. American Economic Review, 95(5), 1653-72. https://doi.org/10.1257/00028280 5775014380
Chong, E. & Khong, F. A. (2017). The living wage: Beyond making ends meet. Bank Negara Malaysia annual report 2017. https://www.bnm.gov.my/-/bank-negara-malaysia-annual-report-2017
Crowley, L. (2024). The changing face of the youth labour market. Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development. https://www.cipd.org/globalassets/media/knowledge/knowledge-hub/reports/20 24-pdfs/8735-changing-face-of-the-youth-labour-market-web.pdf
Department of Statistics Malaysia. (2022, January 20). Consumer Price Index September 2022. https://www.dosm.gov.my/site/downloadrelease?id=14da79c9-81c6-11ed-96a61866daa77ef9&lang=English&admin_view=
Employees Provident Fund. (2021, January 4). 2.5 million EPF members approved for I-SINAR as at 4 January 2021. https://www.kwsp.gov.my/en/web/guest/w/2.5-million-epf-members-approved -for-i-sinar-as-at-4-january-2021-total-withdrawal-of-rm19.62-billion
Fang, J., Hao, W., & Reyers, M. (2022). Financial advice, financial literacy and social interaction: What matters to retirement saving decisions? Applied Economics, 54(50), 5827–5850. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2022.2053654
French, E. (2005). The effects of health, wealth, and wages on labour supply and retirement behavior. Review of Economic Studies, 72(2), 395–427. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-937X.2005. 00337.x
Gallego-Losada, R., Montero-Navarro, A., Rodríguez-Sánchez, J. L. & González-Torres, T. (2022) Retirement planning and financial literacy, at the crossroads. A bibliometric analysis. Finance Research Letters, 44, 102109. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2021.102109
Grace, D., Weaven, S., & Ross, M. (2010). Consumer retirement planning: An exploratory study of gender differences. Qualitative Market Research: An International Journal, 13(2), 174–188. https://doi.org/10.1108/13522751011032601
Groves, R. M., Fowler, F. J., Couper, M. P., Lepkowski, J. M., Singer, E., & Tourangeau, R. (2009). Survey methodology (2nd ed.). Wiley
Hartley, E., Everhart, B., & Briarwood, X. (2024). Social security systems and economic activity. American Journal of Multifunctional Publishing, 1(6), 5-10.
Holden, S., & VanDerhei, J. (2005). Role of 401(k) Accumulations in providing future retirement income. In Blitzstein D., Mitchell O. S., & Utkus S. P. (Eds.) Restructing Retirement Risk. (pp. 37–47). Oxford University Press.
Hopkins, C. D., Roster, C. A., & Wood, C. M. (2006). Making the transition to retirement: Appraisals, post-transition lifestyle, and changes in consumption patterns. Journal of Consumer Marketing, 23(2), 89–101. https://doi.org/10.1108/07363760610655023
Hurd, M. D. (1990) Research on the elderly: Economic status, retirement, and consumption and saving. Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, 28(2), 565-637.
James, G., Witten, D., Hastie, T., & Tibshirani, R. (2021). An introduction to statistical learning: With applications in R. Springer.
NY Johnston, M. P. (2017). Secondary data analysis: A method of which the time has come. Qualitative and Quantitative Methods in Libraries, 3(3), 619-626.
Jun, H. (2020). Social security and retirement in fast-aging middle-income countries: Evidence from Korea. The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, 17, 100284. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeoa. 2020.100284
Junusbekova, G. A. & Zhaumitova, M. D. (2020). The efficacy of the retirement pension provision system: Modeling and assessing of the case of Kazakhstan. Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market, and Complexity, 6(4), 158. https://doi.org/10.3390/joitmc6040158
Knoef, M., Been, J., Alessie, R., Caminada, K., Goudswaard, K., & Kalwij, A. (2016) Measuring retirement savings adequacy: Developing a multi-pillar approach in the Netherlands. Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, 15(1), 55–89. https://doi.org/10.1017/S14747472 14000341
Krishnaveni, V., Jusoh, Z. M., Othman, M. A., & Zainudin, N. (2024). Financial security in retirement: The importance of savings vs earnings in Malaysia. International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 14(10), 1671-1683. http://dx.doi.org/10.6007/ IJARBSS/v14-i10/23273
Kutlu-Koc, V., Alessie, R., & Kalwij, A. (2017). Consumption behavior, annuity income and mortality risk of retirees. De Economist, 165(3), 349–380. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10645-017-9301-z
Lee, S. T, Kim, K. T., & Hanna, S. D. (2023). Consumer retirement planning behavior. In J. Xiao & S. Kumar (Eds.), A Research Agenda for Consumer Financial Behavior (pp. 348). Edward Elgar Publishing. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781803922652.00019
Low, L. S. (2024). Charting stability: COVID-19 conscious retirement planning for tomorrow. SSRN. https://ssrn.com/abstract=4858055
Nurmeksela, A., Välimäki, T., Kvist, T., Savolainen, H., Tahiraj, V., & Hult, M. (2023). Extending ageing nurses’ working lives: A mixed-methods systematic review. Journal of Advanced Nursing, 79(6), 2119–2135. https://doi.org/10.1111/jan.15569
Olafsson, A. & Pagel, M. (2018). The retirement-consumption puzzle: New evidence from personal finances. (NBER Working Paper No. 24405). National Bureau of Economic Research.
Pang, G. & Warshawsky, M. (2014). Retirement savings adequacy of U. S. Workers. Benefits Quarterly, 30(4), 8–24.
Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. (1999). An autoregressive distributed lag modeling approach to cointegration analysis. In S. Strom, (Ed.), Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, (pp. 371-413). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CCOL521633230.011
Rasiah, R., Turner, J. J., Kaur, H., Kelly, T. P. L. & Guptan, V. (2022). Financial stability or instability in their golden years: An analysis of the financial preparedness of Malaysians. In S. Dhakal, A. Nankervis, & J. Burgess (Eds.), Ageing Asia and the Pacific in Changing Times (pp. XVII, 241). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-6663-6_8
Scharn et al. (2017). Predicting working beyond retirement in the Netherlands: An interdisciplinary approach involving occupational epidemiology and economics. Scandinavian Journal of Work, Environment & Health, 43(4), 326–336. https://doi.org/10.5271/sjweh.3649.
Slipsager, S. K. (2018). The real risk in pension forecasting. Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2018(3), 250–273. https://doi.org/10.1080/03461238.2017.1341847
Solomon, M. R. (1983). The role of products as social Stimuli: A symbolic interactionism perspective. Journal of Consumer Research, 10(3), 319. https://doi.org/10.1086/208971
United Nation. (2019). World Population Prospects 2019. Data Booklet. https://population.un.org/wpp/ publications/files/wpp2019_databooklet.pdf
Wargo-Sugleris, M., Robbins, W., Lane, C. J. & Philips, L. R. (2018). Job satisfaction, work environment and successful ageing: Determinants of delaying retirement among acute care nurses. Journal of Advanced Nursing, 74(4), 900–913. https://doi.org/10.1111/jan.13504
World Bank Group. (2020, November 20). A silver lining: Productive and inclusive aging for Malaysia. World Bank. https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/malaysia/publication/a-silver-liningproductive-and-inclusive-aging-for-malaysia
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 International Journal of Management Studies
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Research impact
Harvested 2026-09-07Counts differ between services because each indexes a different body of literature. None of them is the whole picture.
