The Pro-Cyclicality of Loan Loss Provisions: Evidence from Selected East Asian Countries

Authors

  • Azira Abdul Adzis Department of Banking and Risk Management School of Economics, Finance and Banking Universiti Utara Malaysia, Malaysia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.32890/ijms2017.24.1.2

Keywords:

Pro-cyclical, Loan loss provision, Malaysian bank

Abstract

This study investigated the evidence of pro-cyclical behaviour of loan loss provision in four East Asian countries, namely Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, and Hong Kong for the period 1995-2009. Pro-cyclical is defined as building up more loan loss provision during the bad times and reducing them in good times. This study hypothesized that pro-cyclical behaviour of loan loss provision exists in East Asian countries, since they had experienced two types of financial crises – Asian financial crisis in 1997 and global economic crisis in 2008. Utilising a sample of 47 banks, the findings demonstrated that there is evidence of a pro-cyclical pattern in the countries studied, as shown by the negative relationship between loan loss provision and GDP. This study does have a policy implication, where bank regulators should take pro-active action in addressing the issue of pro-cyclicality of loan loss provision because in bad times, increasing loan loss provision would affect the bank’s profit, weaken the bank’s capital, and in turn, diminish its lending activities to creditworthy borrowers.

Keywords: Pro-cyclical, Loan loss provision, Malaysian bank

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Agénor, P. R., & Zilberman, R. (2015). Loan loss provisioning rules, procyclicality, and financial volatility. Journal of Banking and Finance, 61, 301-315.

Ahmed, A. S., Takeda, C., & Thomas, S. (1999). Bank loan loss provision: a reexamination of capital management, earnings management and signalling effects. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 28, 1-25.

Baltagi, B. H. (2008). Econometric analysis of panel data (4th ed.). West Sussex, UK: John Wiley and Sons, Ltd.

Beattie, V. A., Casson, P. D., Dale, R. S., McKenzie, G. W., Sutcliffe, C. M. S., & Turner, M. J. (1995). Banks and Bad Debts: Accounting for Loan Losses in International Banking. England: John Wiley and Sons.

Beatty, A., & Liao, S. (2011). Do delays in expected loss recognition affect banks’ willingness to lend? Journal of Accounting and Economics, 52(1), 1-20.

Beaver, W. H., & Engel, E. E. (1996). Discretionary behaviour with respect to allowances for loan losses and the behaviour of security prices. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 22, 177-206. The main concept of dynamic provisioning approach is to counter-cycle loan loss provisioning by encouraging banks to build up provision during the good years, which is to be drawn on in bad years to preserve banks’ soundness. IJMS 24 (1), 23–39 (2017)

Berger, A. N., & Udell, G. F. (2004). The institutional memory hypothesis and the procyclicality of bank lending behaviour. Journal of Financial Intermediation, 13(4), 458-495.

Bikker, J. A., & Hu, H. (2002). Cyclical patterns in profits, provisioning and lending of banks, DNB Staff Reports, No. 86. Amsterdam: De Nederlandsche Bank.

Bikker, J. A., & Metzemakers, P. A. J. (2005). Bank provisioning behaviour and procyclicality. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 15(2), 141-157.

Bouvatier, V., & Lepetit, L. (2008). Banks’ procyclical behaviour: Does provisioning matter? International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 18, 513-526.

Bouvatier, V., & Lepetit, L. (2012). Provisioning rules and bank lending: A theoretical model. Journal of Financial Stability, 8(1), 25-31.

Cavallo, M., & Majnoni, G. (2002). Do banks provision for bad loans in good times? Empirical evidence and policy implications. In Ratings, rating agencies and the global financial system (pp. 319-342). Springer US.

Fonseca, A. R., & Gonzalez, F. (2008). Cross-country determinants of bank income smoothing by managing loan-loss provision. Journal of Banking and Finance, 32, 217-228.

Frait, J., & Komarkova, Z. (2013). Loan loss provisioning in selected European banking sectors: do banks really behave in a procyclical way? Finance a Uver, 63(4), 308.

Guenther, D. A., & Young, D. (2000). The association between financial accounting measures and real economic activity: a multinational study. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 29(1), 53-72.

Hasan, I., & Wall, L. D. (2004). Determinants of the loan loss allowance: Some cross-country comparisons. The Financial Review, 39, 129-152.

Kwan, S. H. (2003). Operating performance of banks among Asian economies: An international and time series comparison. Journal of Banking and Finance, 27, 471-489.

Laeven, L., & Majnoni, G. (2003). Loan loss provisioning and economic slowdowns: Too much, too late? Journal of Financial Intermediation, 12, 178-197.

Lobo, G. J., & Yang, D.-H. (2001). Bank managers’ heterogeneous decisions on discretionary loan loss provision. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, 16, 223-250.

Downloads

Published

27-07-2017

Research impact

Harvested 2026-09-16
0 citations recorded so far

Counts differ between services because each indexes a different body of literature. None of them is the whole picture.

Identifiers DOI 10.32890/ijms2017.24.1.2