Perbelanjaan Awam dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi: Bukti Empirik daripada Kerajaan Negeri di Semenanjung Malaysia

Authors

  • Norain Mod Asri Fakulti Ekonomi dan Pengurusan Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Malaysia
  • Zulkefly Abdul Karim Fakulti Ekonomi dan Pengurusan Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Malaysia
  • Wook Endut Fakulti Ekonomi dan Pengurusan Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Malaysia
  • Md Zyadi Md Tahir Fakulti Ekonomi dan Pengurusan Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Malaysia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.32890/ijms2012.19.2.7

Keywords:

Perbelanjaan awam, pertumbuhan ekonomi, ujian kointegrasi Johansen, VECM, VAR

Abstract

Kertas ini bertujuan mengkaji hubungan antara perbelanjaan awam dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi di peringkat kerajaan negeri di Semenanjung Malaysia. Beberapa pemboleh ubah yang lain seperti hasil cukai, imbangan fiskal, dan jumlah populasi penduduk juga diambil kira dalam menganggar model persamaan. Kajian ini mengaplikasi ujian kointegrasi Johansen untuk menganalisis hubungan jangka panjang (kointegrasi) dan model vektor pembetulan ralat (VECM) untuk menentukan arah sebab-menyebab dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang dalam kalangan pemboleh ubah kajian. Keputusan kajian menunjukkan; pertama, tidak wujud hubungan jangka panjang antara output negeri dengan belanja awam di negeri Selangor. Kedua, di negeri Pahang dan Melaka wujud hubungan sebab-menyebab dua hala dalam jangka panjang antara output negeri dengan belanja awam. Ketiga, dalam jangka pendek, perubahan output signifikan menjadi penyebab Granger kepada perubahan perbelanjaan awam di Negeri Sembilan, Kedah, Melaka dan Pulau Pinang, yang menyokong hipotesis Wagner. Sebaliknya, di negeri Pahang dan Perak, perubahan perbelanjaan awam signifikan menjadi penyebab Granger kepada perubahan output dalam jangka pendek, yang mengesahkan hipotesis Keynes di negeri tersebut.
 
Kata kunci: Perbelanjaan awam, pertumbuhan ekonomi, ujian kointegrasi Johansen, VECM, VAR.

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Published

30-12-2012

Issue

Vol. 19 No. 2 (2012): International Journal of Management Studies (IJMS) Vol. 19, No. 2 December 2012

Section

Articles

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Harvested 2026-09-08
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Identifiers DOI 10.32890/ijms2012.19.2.7

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