Long Memory and Parity Reversion in Real Exchange Rate

Pengarang

  • Abd. Ghafar Ismail Faculty of Economics, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Malaysia
  • Wahi Ismail Faculty of Economics Universiti Teknologi Mara, Malaysia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.32890/mmj2003.7.2.6

Kata kunci:

purchasing power parity, exchange rate, mean reversion, stationary tests

Abstrak

This paper examines the post Bretton Woods experience of the Malaysian Ringgit. In this period, Malaysia moved from a managed to a floating exchange rate environment.We examine persistence in real exchange rates by estimating fractionally integrated ARIMA models and find evidence of long memory, which induces persistence though this long memory need not be associated with a unit root. The results show that three out of four exchange rates being examined display mean reversion. The long memory process re-establishes the Purchasing Power Parity as a meaningful concept of long-run equilibrium relation between the exchange rate and relative prices.

Muat turun

Muat turun data belum tersedia.

Rujukan

Abuaf, N., & Jorion, P., (1990). PPP in the long run. Journal of Finance 45, 157-174. Azali, M., Habibullah, M. S., & Baharumshah,

A. Z., (2001). Does PPP hold between Asian and Japanese economies? Evidence using panel unit root and panel cointegration. Japan and the World Economy 13, 35-50.

Baharumshah, A. Z., & Ariff, M., (1997). Purchasing power parity in South East Asian countries: A Cointegration approach. Asian Economic Journal 11 (21), 141-153.

Baillie, R. T., & Selover, D. D., (1987). Cointegration and models of exchange rate determination. International Journal of Forecasting 3, 43-53.

Cheung, Y., (1993). Long memory in foreign exchange rates. Journal of Business and Economics Statistics 11, 93-102.

Cheung, Y., & Lai, K. S., (1993). A fractional cointegration analysis of puchasing power parity. Journal of Business and Economics Statistics 11, 103-112.

Diebold, F. X., Husted, S., & Rush, M., (1991). Real Exchange rate under the gold stan dard. Journal of Monetary Economics 24, 151-178. ___, Rudebusch, G. D., (1989). Long memory and persistence in aggregate output. Journal of Monetary Economics 24, 189-209.

Frankel, J. A., (1986). A panel project on purchasing power parity: mean reversion within and between countries. Journal of International Economics 40, 209-224., & Rose, A. K., (1996). A panel project on purchasing power parity: mean reversion within and between countries. Journal of International Economics 40, 209-224.

Geweke, J., & Porter-Hudak, S., (1983). The estimation and application of long memory time series models. Journal of Time Series Analysis 4, 221-238.

Glen, J. D., (1992). Real exchange rates in the short, medium, and long run. Journal of International Economics 33, 147-166.

Granger, C. W. J., (1980). Long memory relationship and the aggregation of dynamic models. Journal of Econometrics 14, 227238.

Hakkio, C. S., & Rush, M., (1991). Cointegration: how short is the long run? Journal of International Money and Finance 10, 571581.

Huizinga, J., (1987). An empirical investigation into the long run behavior or real exchange rates. In: Brunner, K., Meltzer, A. H.(eds.) Empirical studies of velocity, real exchange rates, unemployment and productivity. North Holland: Amsterdam.

Khoon, G. S., & Mithani, D. M., (2000). Deviation from purchasing power parity: Evidence from Malaysia, 1973-1997. Asian Economic Journal 14 (11), 71-85. Malaysian Management Journal 7 (2), 59-65 (2003) http://mmj.uum.edu.my

Lothian, J. R., & Taylor, M. P., (1996). Real exchange rate behavior: The recent float from the perspective of the last two centuries. Journal of Political Economy 104, 448510.

Oh, K. Y., (1996). PPP and unit root tests using panel data. Journal of International Money and Finance 15, 405-418.

Papell, D. H., (1997). Searching for stationarity: PPP under the current float. Journal of International Economics 43, 313-332.

Shiller, R. J., & Perron, P., (1985). Testing the random walk hypothesis: Power versus frequency of observation. Economic Letters 18, 381-386.

Taylor, M. P., & Sarno, L., (1998). The behavior of real exchange rates during the postBretton Woods period. Journal of International Economics 46, 281-312.

Wu, Y., (1996). Are real exchange rates non-stationary? Evidence from a panel data test. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 28, 54-63. Malaysian Management Journal 7 (2), 59-65 (2003)

Diterbitkan

2003-12-01

Cara Memetik

Ismail, A. G., & Ismail, W. (2003). Long Memory and Parity Reversion in Real Exchange Rate. Malaysian Management Journal, 7(2), 59-65. https://doi.org/10.32890/mmj2003.7.2.6

##plugins.generic.citations.panel.title##

##plugins.generic.citations.panel.harvested## 2026-09-07
0 ##plugins.generic.citations.panel.citationsNone##

##plugins.generic.citations.panel.body##

##plugins.generic.citations.panel.identifiers## DOI 10.32890/mmj2003.7.2.6